SpaceX: Man on Mars for only $500,000? The Interplanetary Transport System will KILL YOU!!!
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Here is proof that I have not sold out to anyone and that my support of SpaceX has nothing to do with fanboyism: criticism of the life-threatening flaws in Elon Musk's Mars proposal. Yes, after about four years of waiting, Elon Musk has finally unveiled the SpaceX strategy of sending 100 people to Mars per person at only $500,000. His Falcon XX seems to have evolved into a massive single stage rocket with 42 engines (perhaps we should call it the Falcon 42?) capable of lifting 300 to 550tons to Earth orbit. In addition, his Mars Colonial Transporter - now called the Interplanetary Transport System - is indeed a Red Dragon equivalent of the Big Gemini or Manned Orbiting Laboratory. It's essentially a super sized Dragon with an elongated trunk section to accommodate the propellants, the engines and the people. But it is my sad duty to report that my predictions on how SpaceX plans to solve the radiation hazard was way off and my attempts to reach out to Elon Musk have fallen on deaf ears. Because the truth is they haven't attempted to solve it at all. Musk still erroneously believes that you can survive the radiation on a trip to Mars simply by pointing a simple column of water at the Sun. He is ignoring the fact that the Sun's magnetic field causes the solar flare particles to go off in all directions. The January 27 2012 solar flare was such an example, and was brought to Elon Musk's attention on his Twitter account by yours truly. If that weren't bad enough, Musk is also proposing to use his ITS for manned landings on the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. One of the Jovians moons he proposes is Europa - which resides within Jupiter's radiation belt! Data available from probes that have encountered the Jovian radiation belt, such as Pioneer 10, indicate that it would be lethal to astronauts. I should know: as part of my Astrophysics course I aced an assignment in which I calculated the doses on Europa using said Pioneer 10 data. This clearly indicates that Musk has no idea what he is getting himself into radiation wise and that was he is proposing is destined to fail. Nonetheless, his new Falcon XX or Falcon 42 or ITS Launch Vehicle has potential. Previously I proposed a Dragon spacecraft docked with a living quarters module and shelter surrounded by 2m of water, which would have a mass of about 131tons. A rocket with a lifting capacity of 550tons to Earth orbit could indeed send such a payload to the Moon and Mars, especially if it has two additional first stages as side boosters. ======== NOTE: The original version of this video, posted on October 24th 2016, contained an error in my calculations for 3MeV electron dose rates. The fluxes I used applied to 9 Jupiter Radii, not 9.5 Jupiter Radii where Europa resides. Still, even using the correct values the radiation is not safe. Here's the corrected version. My apologies for the error and to everyone who left a comment.
Comments
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Elon, has recently declared he would be building tunneling machines. He claims to build underground transportation on earth but after watching your video, I think we can see he's thinking of underground city's.
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Undeniably an awesome transport system for science and cargo. Would send some of those super rovers. NASA could afford to launch all kinds of stuff and with more frequency, by hiring spacex.
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Where is the spin for gravity
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We are not even able to go back on the Moon and we are talking about going to Europa. There is something smelling fishy here...
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Smart as hell damn teach em
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any of these idea won't work and very expensive. what he needed to do is modify those capsules such that most it's volume are occupied by booster or thruster engines. on the back, stack about 7 of those in low orbit LEO. then merge it with couple of inflatable or BEAM habitats, up front is another capsule for maybe piloting or landing. and there you go. got yourself a reusable spacecraft for manned mission which can return and park at leo per 2 yr loop around free return trajectory. as for radiation protection., you cannot stop cosmic rays. just gota split it apart as it passes through a fabric using nanotechnology which is mostly a thin layer of boron nitride nanotubes. the remaining problem is he can't launch the dragon v2 with regular fr9? just burrow maybe bunch of soyuz, delta 4s or yadiyadiyoda.
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Your credibility is shot with all that Moon hoax nonsense, No one will ever take you serious.
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Musk's biggest problem is that he is too busy looking at the big picture. While that has been his saving grace in the past and got him this far, it seems to be keeping him, and the rest of SpaceX, from looking at the numerous smaller problems that need to be solved. I really hope SpaceX partners with a group that knows more about space colonization and manned space travel rather than trying to do everything themselves. They are doing great at getting the transportation available (which is great and arguably the biggest current problem) in order to make it theoretically possible, but they seem to be forgetting about all the other issues that would make it actually plausible.
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This is hilarious! The idea is that if people believe that we can get Humans to any planetary body with Rockets. Then they can start showing us all the stuff that they've already found on these planets. The key is knowing they don't use rockets to get to other objects in space, it's all portals, I know it's hard to believe. Though, that's why they don't care about radiation, because no people will be on the rockets. (Research the Challenger shuttle the exploded, they're all still alive), why? because they use portals. Why build ships that don't defend against radiation, because they use the other method and no one is on the ship.
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Jarrah , do us all a favor, especially your internet troll fans and try to get some of your findings published in any " scientific PC journal " on this topic and post the nice reply you get back.. It will of course be either NOTHING or a standard denial form letter. I NEVER got any replies back from the Grumman Museum on Long Island about the Lem and the supposed largest bank of detailed info in the world they have on the "space machine" even though a nasa-hole internet troll insisted that it was very easy to acquire and that he had done so.
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What a load of Disney........
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I watched a video of all of the powered landing tests they've ever done. It seems the rockets cannot 'hunt' for a landing site and must commit from a very high altitude so they can come down either vertically or in a carefully controlled arc (presumably to minimise side forces).
The point being.... what if the terrain on Mars is not suitable to land on? Will they be able to hover about and search for a good site like a helicopter can? It appears not.
Also are they really going to re-use the lifting stage without stripping it down and doing a complete overhaul (like the shuttle turnaround)? That seems completely mad.
Everything about the presentation suggests
1. It's a giant scam and nothing will ever come of it
2. It's a giant scam and they will pull a 'Capricorn One' scenario and set up camp on Devon Island.
3. They have already developed shielding technology (artificial magnetic field or something) but they have to keep it under wraps for some reason...... such as not exposing Apollo for NOT having such shielding.
Even with the shielding solved it still looks bonkers.
A lot of people say Apollo was fake program designed to funnel money into the REAL (and secret) space program (anti gravity etc).
Could this be the private sector equivalent? -
1. No person will be landing on Europa ( LOL when I saw the presentation - obviously unaware of the environment around Jupiter)
2. Isn’t the solar wind still directional – Just not necessarily directly from the suns direction. If so spacex design still works as long as they have a way to tell the direction the solar wind is moving in.
3. Where are you coming up with the full 2 meter layer of water being totally necessary?
4. Your design for the upper stage of the ITS is impractical for spacex purpose for the rocket.
5. This reminds me what it must have been like for the early pioneers crossing the atlantic – if you get caught in a bad storm your Sc@#$wed !! -
trying to understand the tittle, is it $500k to be paid or for the passenger to pay ?
Either way, I would gracefully decline, no thanks.
There are more peaceful ways to die -
Europa missions would be done with artificial magnetic field.
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They have 0 interest in killing their own customers. EVERY flaw you see in the ITS has been talked about and discussed by the thousands of Spacex employees and will definitely be accounted for, If not shown in this presentation then by the first tests.
The deep space radiation is countered by the in orbit refueling, which obviously drastically minimizes the exposure time of the radiation. -
Very well done the whole video ,one of your best videos you ever produced quality wise ...and the message to Mr Elon musk is Crystal clear ...he need to listen your otherwise we all be waiting to hear who will be the first astronaut who will become the first victim of deadly radiation of cruel deep space beyond low earth orbits.
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2 stories of densly packed cargo ,large metal rockets,,large fuel tanks with some fuel...I bet that reduces the radiation more than earths atmosphere,, plus water as an extra,,,
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this guy must be one of these anti Space Program people
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it's just a transport system, and it's the first. nobody said it was as safe as earth, and that's why it's a good deal.
it will cost lots extra to have radiation shielding. Gotta start somewhere. I do appreciate the math behind all of it. It is important to think about, but we can't let something like dying get in the way of exploration, so my conclusion is a bit different, that's all. even if you would die after 2 weeks on mars, there are still lots of people who would go.
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