Astronomy Cast Episode 273: Solutions to the Fermi Paradox
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I have one degree in economics and wanted to respond to the subissue of the Fermi Paradox being an issue of limited resources to a technologically advanced civilization expanding in a way that would be detectable. I do not believe this is a barrier, contrary to what, with all due respect to the great minds of Fraser Cain and Dr. Pamela Gay have proposed it could be.
There are three counter arguments which I believe to be sound, and these are just a summary. One is that the money supply always expands due to the action between savings, investment and lending in the economy, A portion of this expansion is real, only a smaller portion inflation in a healthy economy. The new real money that is generated, separate from inflation, does not represent any given resources, but a way to reallocate with growth a way to use both human and capital resources. So what is not feasible today in economic terms, with say one million years of growth, could actually be possible. Humans or any advanced civilization must trade, cooperate for survival and allocate labor. This is true for all pack animals, I would elaborate.
Secondly, there are always new ways to use resources, allocate resources, enhance utility of resources, find alternates and substitutes for resources and there is a wealth of existing resources left untapped even in our solar system, just to get to started. In a whole galaxy, the wealth, if utilized is unimaginable.
Lastly, the value of human resources, the philosophy, advances in science and technology, and the ingenuity of life is itself the most valuable commodity. I've heard of one economist who made a fortune betting against commodities, because he believed human labor would always appreciate and become more valuable as we evolved. As long as intelligent survives, it will evolve, maybe in ways that are foreign to us, but its impossible for me to believe that given millions to billions of years of evolution, that the resource limitation argument is valid.
One last thought, is it just possible that we are just average? We've had miserable failure every time we've tried to place ourselves as being unique, alone, at the center of the universe, etc. Is it possible that most civilizations are likely on pace with us, and only a small deviation above or below the curve would be so? Is possible too, that the most advanced ones we cannot possibly do anything except look at how they were in the past, limited by the speed of light reaching us, so that a civilization such as ours in a neighboring solar system or in the galactic neighborhood might take tens of thousands of years to pick up radio signals that they started sending 40 or 50 years ago like we did unintentionally?
I think it is possible to make too much of the Fermi Paradox and I'm not terribly awash in disappointment. The trick with philosophy is often to be realistically positive, to be focused in place and skepticcal but looking for the unexpected. That is where great breakthroughs happen. But Fermi I believe at best to be an interesting line of thought and diversionary. If we are truly alone, would this stop us from searching or should it? I believe not.
Great episode! Thanks for taking the time to share! -
Let's develop a " neutrino voltaic" panel which would produce power everywhere and always...someday.Shalom
58m 36sLenght
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